مقاله انگلیسی پیش بینی قدرت فتوولتائیک کوتاه مدت و منطقه ای

05 شهریور 1397 | 14:57

مقاله انگلیسی پیش بینی قدرت فتوولتائیک کوتاه مدت و منطقه ای
عنوان فارسی مقاله: پیش بینی قدرت فتوولتائیک کوتاه مدت و منطقه ای، که توسط سیستم های مرجع بهبود یافته است، براساس مثال لوکزامبورگ
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله: Short-term and regionalized photovoltaic power forecasting, enhanced by reference systems, on the example of Luxembourg
مجله/کنفرانس: Renewable Energy
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی: Photovoltaic forecasting; Forecasting performance; RMSE; Photovoltaic integration; Solar forecasting; Solar energy integration
نوع نگارش مقاله: پژوهشی - research
نمایه: scopus - master journals - JCR
DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.08.005
ناشر: الزویر - Elsevier
نوع ارائه مقاله: ژورنالی
نوع مقاله: ISI
سال انتشار مقاله: 2019
ایمپکت فاکتور(IF): 4.900(2017)
شاخص H_index: 143
SJR: 1.847
شناسه ISSN: 0960-1481
فرمت مقاله انگلیسی: PDF
تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی: 18
کد محصول: EN12
فهرست انگلیسی مطالب
Abstract

Introduction

Development of hypotheses

-Investor protection

-Information dissemination

-Mandatory disclosure requirements

Research design

Data and sample

Empirical results

-Descriptive statistics

-Regression analysis—the effect of management forecasts on the cost of equity
capital

-Country-level institutional factors and the effect of management forecasts
on the cost of equity capital

-Effects of management forecast characteristics on the cost of equity
capital

Robustness checks and additional tests

-Endogeneity

-Re-estimating the cost of equity capital after adjusting for analyst forecast
errors

-Controlling for market efficiency

-Using one-year-ahead returns to proxy for the cost of equity capital

-The effect of management forecasts conditional on the magnitude of earnings
news

-Removing observations with multiple management forecasts

-Removing small firms from the sample

-Controlling for the sign of the news in management forecasts

- Using alternative measures of mandatory disclosure requirements

Conclusion

Appendix

Measurement of the Implied Cost of Equity Capital

References
نمونه متن انگلیسی
Abstract

The authors developed a forecasting model for Luxembourg, able to predict the expected regional PV power up to 72 h ahead. The model works with solar irradiance forecasts, based on numerical weather predictions in hourly resolution. Using a set of physical equations, the algorithm is able to predict the expected hourly power production for PV systems in Luxembourg, as well as for a set of 23 chosen PV-systems which are used as reference systems. Comparing the calculated forecasts for the 23 reference systems to their measured power over a period of 2 years, revealed a comparably high accuracy of the forecast. The mean deviation (bias) of the forecast was 1.1% of the nominal power – a relatively low bias indicating low systemic error. The root mean square error (RMSE), lies around 7.4% - a low value for single site forecasts. Two approaches were tested in order to adapt the short-term forecast, based on the present forecast deviations for the reference systems. Thereby, it was possible to improve the very short term forecast on the time horizon of 1–3 h ahead, specifically for the remaining bias, but also systemic deviations can be identified and partially corrected (e.g. snow cover).
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